The End of Chimerica

For the better part of the past decade, the world economy has been dominated by a world economic order that combined Chinese export-led development with US over-consumption. The financial crisis of 2007-2009 likely marks the beginning of the end of the Chimerican relationship. In this paper we look at this era as economic historians, trying to set events in a longer-term perspective. In some ways China's economic model in the decade 1998-2007 was similar to the one adopted by West Germany and Japan after World War II. Trade surpluses with the U.S. played a major role in propelling growth. But there were two key differences. First, the scale of Chinese currency intervention was without precedent, as were the resulting distortions of the world economy. Second, the Chinese have so far resisted the kind of currency appreciation to which West Germany and Japan consented. We conclude that Chimerica cannot persist for much longer in its present form. As in the 1970s, sizeable changes in exchange rates are needed to rebalance the world economy. A continuation of Chimerica at a time of dollar devaluation would give rise to new and dangerous distortions in the global economy.

The Empire Effect: The Determinants of Country Risk in the First Age of Globalization, 1880-1913

This paper reassesses the importance of colonial status to investors before 1914 by means of multivariable regression analysis of the data available to contemporaries. We show that British colonies were able to borrow in London at significantly lower rates of interest than non-colonies precisely because of their colonial status, which mattered more than either gold convertibility or a balanced budget. Allowing for differences not only in monetary and fiscal policy but also in economic development and location, the “Empire effect” was a discount of around 100 basis points. We conclude that investors saw colonial status as a no-default guarantee

The "Thin Film Of Gold": Monetary Rules and Policy Credibility In Developing Countries

This paper asks whether developing countries can reap credibility gains from submitting policy to a strict monetary rule. Following earlier work, we look at the gold standard era (1880-1914) as a "natural experiment" to test whether adoption of a rule-based monetary framework such as the gold standard increased policy credibility. On the basis of the largest possible dataset covering almost sixty independent and colonial borrowers in the London market, we challenge the traditional view that gold standard adherence worked as a credible commitment mechanism that was rewarded by financial markets with lower borrowing costs. We demonstrate that in the poor periphery -- where policy credibility is a particularly acute problem -- the market looked behind "the thin film of gold". Our results point to a dichotomy: whereas country risk premia fell after gold adoption in developed countries, there were no credibility gains in the volatile economic and political environments of developing countries. History shows that monetary policy rules are no short-cut to credibility in situations where vulnerability to economic and political shocks, not time-inconsistency, are overarching concerns for investors.

A Network Topology Approach to Bot Classification

Automated social agents, or bots, are increasingly becoming a problem on social media platforms. There is a growing body of literature and multiple tools to aid in the detection of such agents on online social networking platforms. We propose that the social network topology of a user would be sufficient to determine whether the user is a automated agent or a human. To test this, we use a publicly available dataset containing users on Twitter labelled as either automated social agent or human. Using an unsupervised machine learning approach, we obtain a detection accuracy rate of 70%

Year in review 2006: Critical Care – respirology

The present article summarises and places in context original research articles from the respirology section published in Critical Care in 2006. Twenty papers were identified and were grouped by topic into those addressing acute lung injury and ventilator-induced lung injury, those examining high-frequency oscillation, those studying pulmonary physiology and mechanics, those assessing tracheostomy, and those exploring other topics

Pro/con clinical debate: Tracheostomy is ideal for withdrawal of mechanical ventilation in severe neurological impairment

Most clinical trials on the topic of extubation have involved patients outside the neurological intensive care unit. As a result, in this area clinicians are left with little evidence on which to base their decision making. Although tracheostomies are increasingly common procedures, they are not without complications and costs, and hence a decision to perform them should not be taken lightly. In this issue of Critical Care two groups debate the merits of tracheostomy before extubation in a patient with neurological impairment. What becomes very clear is the need for more high quality data for this common clinical problem